Tesla has about 18 months to maintain its spot as the number one EV maker in the world. And then other automakers – especially VW – have a good chance of catching up.
That’s one prediction from a Bloomberg Intelligence report released today, which looks at the battle for dominance of the EV market between a range of global players.
Globally, Bloomberg expects battery-electric vehicles to make up 15% of global vehicle market share by 2025, up from about 6% in 2021. In the US, it’s about 5%.
Scale and battery costs are currently the barriers preventing other brands from seriously challenging Tesla, Bloomberg explained, but as the new-generation models truly designed for volume arrive in 2025 and 2026, with proprietary software, that could change. . LFP chemistry in some models helps keep costs down, as do cell-to-pack battery configurations.
2024 Volkswagen ID.Buzz
According to Bloomberg, VW is most poised to overtake Tesla in 2024 and is already leading the way in Europe. It expects VW to overtake Tesla in EV volume in 2024 as it continues to ramp up models with the MEB platform, such as the ID.4, ID.Buzz and others.
VW is just one of many global automakers that “will challenge Tesla via an impending wave of competing models,” the company said, which caged the forecast by saying profit incentives for those models are “limited amid rising battery costs and a lack to scale.”
In general, German automakers are not doing very well in their EV shift. Together, they sold just 5% EVs worldwide in the first quarter. And Ford still has to prove the economics of electric trucks, even if it has an edge with the Ford F-150 Lightning.
2022 Ford F-150 Lightning
That said, Bloomberg pointed to the F-150 Lightning as a major leap forward over the competition — as the first entry from one of the older automakers to a full-size, battery-powered pickup truck. “General Motors and Tesla won’t compete in space before 2023, and Rivian’s small scale doesn’t make it threatening,” said senior North American industry analyst Kevin Tynan, a lead author of the report.
The company expects battery-electric vehicles to make up a quarter of passenger vehicle sales in China by 2025 — up from 11% in 2021 — and pointed out that any perceived inferiority alongside Tesla is fading fast. BYD, Nio, XPeng and others are closing all the technology and branding gaps in China and are able to win over consumers with lower prices, luxurious cabins and virtual reality entertainment.
BYD Han EV
Bloomberg sees China’s BYD, globally, as the third-largest EV maker by 2022, with BYD’s electrical volume exceeding 1 million units by 2024.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently announced a 10% reduction in the number of salaried employees, while the number of employees per hour will increase — a move that won’t make the automaker pile up on the kind of rolls that the new products and types of vehicles have. develops that Tesla needs to compete on a global stage.
Ultimately, Bloomberg notes, Tesla’s continued business success depends on its plants in Germany and Texas, and even then, the target annual volume growth of 50% will become increasingly difficult to achieve.